The Future Starts Here: An Optimistic Guide to What Comes Next- Book Review (and Critique)

Ah, the future! Back in the day we had visions filled with undimmed optimism; we dreamt of gleaming glass spires, flying cars, natty silver or velour one pieces, world peace, robot maids named Rosie and off-world travel. Now all we see represented of the future in mainstream media is a dystopian misery as Terminator robots take over the planet, zombie hoards proliferate as small bands of humans eke out a living in a resource diminished Earth and humans vie for glory via violent games after cataclysmic climate collapse. Bleak times indeed supported by the popular circumambient (prevailing or common) narrative- It's difficult to dream of a bright optimistic future as the current common story is antithetical to this.

The Mean World Syndrome, brought about by the rolling 24 hour news coverage of terrible events, makes us think there is no hope. Even though we are currently living in one of the most peaceful times, where poverty has dropped substantially and the average life expectancy has increased, we think the world is going to ‘hell in a handcart.’

Whether its climate change, species extinction, water poverty, economic poverty or Brexit and the rise in Nationalism or popularism, we live in a world where the current thinking oscillates between the Pygmalion Effect (the idea of the positive self-fulfilling prophecy) and Golem Effect (the idea of the negative self-fulfilling prophecy). These Effects are causing problems that seem cyclical, like boom and bust economics, the reproductive rights of women, BAME rights etc and so fights and freedoms once fought and hard won, seem to be rolling backwards. This isn't history repeating itself but more that certain events in history seem to be cyclical.

This situation is further perpetuated by pluralistic ignorance, where people don't want to admit that they have a knowledge gap or will even admit to not knowing about something for fear of seeming ignorant or lesser. The problem is we increasingly live in a world where people feel they cannot be honest lest they be condemned for their ignorance.

It's all pretty disheartening... but there is another, more hopeful way of looking at the world. I've shared my reviews and thoughts on Rutger Bregman and now I'd like to bring author John Higgs into this mix. Higgs is an exciting and enthusiastic writer who I came across whilst reading the KLF biography. Whilst looking through his other works, I came across 'The Future Starts Here: An Optimists Guide to What Comes Next' and bought it straight away as I like the way Higgs brings difficult concepts to life by providing clear examples and in very clear and understandable terms.

In the Introduction, 'The Comedy of Eras' Higgs looks at how dystopian futures are now the norm in science fiction and actually many 'real-world' stories now read like the Walking Dead, with self interest at the heart of a lot of what we do. The optimism of the 60s and early 70s, shown in Star Trek, Space 1999 and The Jetsons gave way to Blade Runner, Back to the Future 2 and Terminator. The default position is that the world is doomed and we are going to hell in a handcart merrily.

Of all things, even a recent Innocent Smoothies advert highlighted the casual nature with which we are approaching our demise, with a shrug rather than a fight. Although I like the advert, the fact that Innocent is owned by Coca Cola and thus is part of a company that contributed billions of metric tonnes to the plastic pollution problem isn’t lost on me but the advert was effective in its message. Due to a bit of a backlash, Innocent removed the original advert and created this new, more serious one instead.

Higgs puts forward that this laissez-faire attitude may be due to the narrative we tell ourselves, often related to one of the 7 stories popular in the West:

Overcoming the Monster

Rags to Riches

The Quest

Voyage and Return

Comedy

Tragedy

Rebirth.

At different times we have a narrative that suits what's happening, so with the Enlightenment it was The Quest to find ‘The Truth.’ Higgs suggests that currently we feel we are Tragedy but are actually more in Comedy, think of the world as one giant Basil Fawlty, unable to see the absurdity of its actions and its behaviour but from a distance everyone can telegraph what is going to happen. It's an interesting idea but not one I completely agree with as it reduces all ideas and art into a checklist to pigeonhole things into, however it does contain elements of truthiness. Also, I'd argue that much of the current ennui we have in the world is due to the supermassive object problem- where something is so vast that it isn't possible to comprehend it. Talk to people about any wars or land disputes and people will often say, "It's all Geopolitics." The interconnectedness of things makes even the most seemingly arbitrary choice a philosophical conundrum, something 'The Good Place' argued with Allan Schnaiberg's Treadmill of Production Theory- the quest for profitability has led to greater extraction of resources, creating a more toxic environment and replaced labour with automation or a 'race to the bottom'. Coupled with the illusion of perpetual financial growth amongst a decimated Earth, shown by Earth overshoot day (where we take more from the planet than can be naturally replaced) and the whole world's financial institutions are seen to truly be an Emperor with no clothes.

However, for people struggling to just survive the day, whether financially, emotionally or socially, a lot of this is not their primary concern- it's all too vast and their mental bandwidth can't take it. So people do what they can; they recycle, turn off the lights when they leave the room, walk more for shorter journeys etc but all the while feeling that they are battling against the tide. Ulrich Beck called this the Individualisation Thesis where we are each responsible for our own actions as independent actors rather than society as a whole, however there is no way we can all act in the best way all the time independently by doing research-there just aren't enough hours in the day. That's why we look to governments, agencies and institutions to do that for us but we need to hold them to account when they fail their moral obligation of serving society. When they do inevitably fail, it's difficult to see beyond the 'they're all in it for themselves’ narrative. This feeling of corrosive pessimism is appealing as it requires very little except accepting that most of the people in the world are beyond saving, the future is doomed and the fate of our planet sealed.

I think Higgs is onto something as he is a pragmatic optimist and says that. for most of the situations, there are approaches we could take to give us all a chance but we have to create a narrative where we want to BE the change, and not just sign an online petition, and that is something I can get behind!

Chapter 1, 'On Being Replaced,' looks at the rise of AI and its perceived threat to us humans. However, Higgs argues that AI is all around us, what with predictive text, facial recognition, Alexa, Sat Navs etc and it's not all Skynet dystopia. Higgs also talks about the Turing Test and what it means to be truly human. He talks about AI is seemingly intelligent but what it is actually doing is learning and copying and then replicating that process rather than being creative. That's why the work is produces is derivative nonsense rather than meticulously crafted and nuanced. He argues that AI is good for organised tasks but, in terms of creativity, it is pretty bad... at the moment.

Chapter 2, 'Arrow-flight Projections', looks at the concept of 'Futurology'- this is projecting into the future where new technologies will be the norm. However, Arrow-flight Projections are extremely linear, optimistic and unlikely. As with any technology there is a through line on innovation but rarely is it a straightforward journey with no deviations. For example, we had people predicting vacationing on the moon in 1980, terraformed planets by the millenium... All this brought about by Arrow-flight Projections based on Man landing on the moon in 1969!

One of the chief concerns is with the rise of AI and how it will create a dystopian nightmare scenario with governments and powerful groups able to spy on people. There is a concern that AI could be tasked to replicate itself and improve the AI and so we could have the Singularity or 'The Rapture of the Nerds' as it is colloquially called- we know it as the ‘Rise of the Machines’ when the technology turns against us. However, Higgs believes that if this were to occur it would be by accident rather than design as AI doesn't have a consciousness let alone malicious intent... yet. That may change and we might have a HAL 9000 situation but until that consciousness develops, we should be fine.

Chapter 3, ‘Patterns,’ looks at the value of data. Higgs discusses the Facebook data problem as the company has an insane valuation on the stock exchange, not because of its revenue stream but because of the amount of data it holds. Many are not sure how valuable this data is but it could be worth a lot, but Higgs doesn't think so as people are gaming the algorithm for likes etc and so they don't see the real information, only the filtered impression of a person and the data gathered by FB shows that-it's a role play for many, an alter ego. This feeds into the filter bias with observation and confirmation bias and that's why we see more of the things we like, even though we need a more balanced view of the world.

However, Big Data is powerful, even when considering the issues above as it reveals truism and trends that even the fact, incorrect or biased data seeks to obfuscate. Yuval Harari talks about Dataism, the culture surrounding data and how it is altering the way we behave and he gives the example of fitness trackers and the unreliability of them. People will do a set exercise and know the value but the tracker doesn't always tracked so people do more to make up for the inaccuracies. We all do it.

However, Higgs is optimistic that whilst AI is useful it works better when it is complemented with human oversight as it can get into its own Reality Tunnel (our perceptions of the world- the narrative we tell ourselves).

Chapter 4, ‘The Metamodern Generation,’ looks at how each generation form their own historical narrative and how this can have real world effects and consequences. The biggest example is the normalisation of casual racism, sexism, mysogyny and homophobia by Gen Xers in 1980s films which are no longer acceptable by today's, especially Gen Z's, standards (Check out this link to Molly Ringwald’s New Yorker piece which discusses this). Even Disney, the apparent bastion of family values, has realised this with Belle’s mean song from Beauty and the Beast in which she comments unkindly about the village people she lives with.

When you think about it, Belle was actually really unkind to her village.

When you think about it, Belle was actually really unkind to her village.

Back then, much was considered okay or the norm but this isn't the case and should never have been the case and Gen Z are hoping to change it but it is a tough battle to fight as Gen X and Baby Boomers dominate and their narrative was one of nihilism, rebellion and self-centred individualism. Gen Z have grown up with the internet and have been exposed to an unprecedented amount of technology in their upbringing, so they have a greater interconnected understanding of the world and empathy.... but this may be leading to empathy fatigue as they realise what they have to battle against economic ruin, environmental collapse and the breakdown in civil society as a consequence.

Gen Z are different from the generations that preceded them in that they are a highly socially conscience group that wants to enact change but they will need help to realise that change from those in positions of authority and power. Higgs is very optimistic with Gen Z and believes that their compassion and empathy will change the world for the better.

Chapter 5, ‘The Dream of Space,’ examines the dream to travel to space and colonise Mars. Higgs talks about the cultural impact of Star Trek and its utopian outlook but also how it changed and became more pessimistic about humanities inability to improve itself in the later series, especially after creator Gene Rodenberry died. Higgs also considers the many achievements of Elon Musk and how he has made battery cars and reusable rockets more than just financially viable, he's made them seem the obvious course of action in order to save humanity from environmental collapse here on Earth. However, Higgs argues that the idea that Mars will be terraformed and humans will live in space may have some biological and economic problems as the human race will not be able to cope with living under a dome in extreme conditions and the cost will still be prohibitively high.

Over the past few weeks, it's been confusing to watch billionaires Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos fly off to space in their own commercial space flights. Confusing as it’s an amazing achievement and will have positive impacts on the fast tracking of space travel but also disconcerting as it has been done on the backs of the workers of their respective companies and their union busting strategies that denies many of their workers rights and financial benefits they should be getting, all whilst not always paying their fair share of tax. The unedifying 'Space Race' during a time of massive environmental issues and global economic and social uncertainty post-Covid just really grated on me and it shouldn't have. I think the billionaires will go to space and they will have an army of robots to gather resources as well as further science but for the everyday Joe, I think it's not likely.

Chapter 6, ‘Between the Real and the Virtual,’ looks at the power of Virtual Reality and the online digital world. The fear for some is that VR will become a way for corporations to tap into our interests and fears via our social media profiles and then start to manipulate us with targeted experiences. This is already happening with targeted ads using tracking cookies and the information we readily provide online such as interests etc but the worry is that with VR it will be more vivid. Years after the Fukashima Power Plant disaster in Japan, The Guardian visited the site for their VR App and showed the devastating consequences after the incident. Powerful stuff indeed but it didn't present the context or data to show that nuclear energy is probably the cleanest and safest energy source and so people experiencing this VR journey would have walked away thinking negatively of nuclear rather than seeing it as one of the solutions to combat climate change by reducing our need for fossil fuels.

Higgs is not so concerned as he thinks most people are aware when they are being manipulated and nascent Gen Z, who are born with a screen in their hands, will be aware that they are being played.

I agree with Higgs and I had a VR headset for a couple of years, playing RE7 and many other games. It was an experienced that I loved but I knew it was a created, curated world rather than a real world facsimile. The Matrix has made people worry that we are already part of a machine but I don't think that'll happen anytime soon, and if anyone does try it I think of Inception where you can manipulate the situation around you and the logic doesn't follow so it'll be clear you're in a dream.

Chapter 7, ‘Psychic Pollution,’ looks at how the news cycle presents a misanthropic view of the world, looking for outrage and simplified heroes and villains in broad strokes. It also looks at how Silicon Valley and social media companies are biohacking out brains with the dopamine hit achieved from Likes, Shares etc.

I've reviewed a couple of books and written articles about this before and how the news affects real world views and behaviour. Higgs now argued that that's why post millenials are abandoning FB and Twitter in droves. He believes change is coming as the power of these social media companies come to heel.

Chapter 8, ‘Fixing Things,’ has Higgs looking at the existential threat to all life on earth due to climate change. He discusses the Dark Mountain Project which has the aim to alter the current circumambient mythos about us plucky humans overcoming the odds and progressing and instead looks at environmental collapse and the end of civilisation. Higgs believes that this viewpoint and pessimism seems to be ingrained in the older generations including Gen Xers. However, he argues that Millenials and the newer Gen Z are more determined that ever to alter this and give themselves a fighting chance by not being as materialistic or laissez faire with larger environmental and geopolitical issues and problems. A lot of this change has been driven by changes in technology, as the modern smart phone does much of what separate items would use back even only 20 years ago, but also due to the lack of lack of space (many live at home or in rented tiny apartments or rooms). Netflix, Audible and Spotify take the place of CDs, DVDs and books in terms of material goods but also IKEA, cheap and practical furniture take the place of more expensive or impractical, heavy furniture. It is because if this we hear much of the old media bemoan that 'Millenials are killing xyz' etc. Higgs also considered the call for Universal Basic Income and whilst this seems inevitable for some, for the generation brought up on the new version of the Protestant Work Ethic where ‘Greed Is Good,’ this seems antithetical to the way they were brought up. The Great Chain of Being, the idea that humans can use the Earth as they see fit, has been the circumambient mythos for centuries, but this is changing as we realise that perpetual growth is not possible. With nature reserves and rewilding projects like Knepp Farm, nature is recovering and many countries are now dedicating more space to nature reserves and parks.

I liked this chapter as I've written before about anchor points that have affected the life of Millenials, including me, struggling to pay the newly introduced uni fees, get on the property ladder whilst property prices exploded, manage job prospects after the Dot Com bubble burst and made many uni courses unviable and maintain long-term jobs in a time of zero hour contracts which were either low paid or low skilled. It also captures the zeitgeist of the Gen Z, who are hustling and are the slash generation as in barista/ shop worker/ streamer... they are adaptable and have had to learn to pivot and take part in the gig economy. They are also more socially conscious and networked and as a result, have a higher level of compassion and empathy and want to change the world for the better, no more biodiversity and environmental loss through inaction for them.

With Chapter 9, ‘More Than Individual,’ Higgs looks at the idea of Immediatism, the idea that you do something just for the sake of it without commercial interests- it’s the social interactions that matter. It's like the mantra 'You only live once' so why not enjoy things for the moment? There is also an opposition between Old Power and New Power; Old Power is in the hands of the few and individualistic but New Power is more democratic and connected to networks- think about the power of Harvey Weinstein in the 90s and early 00s to his decline in power and the rise of the #MeToo movement. Many people had decided that enough was enough to this open secret of abuse and he was brought to heel.

Higgs also looks at the ascending and descending path, one looks to spirituality and the Heavens and one looks to life on Earth. Up until very recently, many people were just looking at the ascending hoping to find their path to heaven but with the decline in influence of places of worship and falling religions etc in many places across the world, we are starting to think about collective responsibility and are recognising that we need to work together to solve the issues the world faces, such as climate change, ecological collapse etc.

I really enjoyed the book as I feel Higgs is pretty much spot on with what I can see is happening in the world. A new circumambient story is being formed and this one has humanity survive living beside nature instead of mastering it- this is at the heart of what I see happening across the world. The Covid pandemic has accelerated this realisation as we have seen how we have truly messed up the natural order that existed in the world and so this is almost a fresh start, The Great Reset but not in conspiracy-laden nonsense but actual real opportunity to do better, to be better. Higgs recently wrote a post-script base on this and I've pasted the video of it below as he talks about this more clearly and eloquently than I can ever imagine to do. But the upshot is that the world has changed and it can be clearly seen in many areas including the fact that this situation has made many consider their lives and so we have the Great Resignation and many businesses are using the Hybrid Approach to work where people are working at home and in offices too, meaning there is more time for hobbies and family- it seems that there is going to be more balance in the world going forward.